No guarantees in Guimaraes

Germany and Portugal go into their final Group A game on Sunday with their destiny in this UEFA European Under-21 Championship out of their own hands. Progress for either team is still in the equation, though it is by no means simple arithmetic.

'Main thing is to win'
Germany's defeat by France last time out leaves them on three points and Dieter Eilts's side will advance with a win or draw in Guimaraes, provided pool leaders France beat Serbia and Montenegro – also on three points – in the other match. However, success for both the Germans and Serbo-Montenegrins would see three teams tied on six points, making head-to-head records the key factor. A draw in both fixtures would keep Eilts's men in second. "The situation is not easy for us," admitted Eilts. "The main thing is to win against France and hope that Serbia and Montenegro do not defeat France."

Two men down
For Portugal, the permutations are even more problematic. Following losses to France and Serbia and Montenegro, Agostinho Oliveira's men simply have to beat Germany by three goals and hope France overcome the Serbo-Montenegrins. Nor is the host nation's task eased by the broken foot suffered by goalkeeper Bruno Vale against the French on Thursday. The FC Porto man misses both the remainder of this tournament and the following FIFA World Cup, for which he had been selected. Compounding matters even further is the leg complaint that sidelines centre-forward Hugo Almeida.

Sustained by faith
"I have to keep believing," Oliveira said. "I still believe we can qualify and I still have faith in my players. We can beat Germany by three goals but for that to happen, we have to play as we did in qualifying when we won ten games out of ten. We're in a tricky position yet we could easily have drawn with France and beaten Serbia and Montenegro. The three goals we have conceded have been strange ones [including two own goals] and things could have been different with a bit of luck."

'No calculations'
Meanwhile, the mood in the Germany camp has been as relaxed as possible. A "partisan crowd" at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques will not worry Eilts's boys "because they are used to big crowds in the Bundesliga, Premiership and Eredivisie", the coach said. After the squad spent Friday playing football-tennis before a night out in Porto, they will go into the match "with a smile on our faces", according to full-back Moritz Volz. "We are looking forward to a real atmosphere," he added. That, at least, can be guaranteed. As midfielder Alexander Meier told uefa.com: "In this situation, it makes no sense to calculate."