#UCL Fantasy Football Matchday 11: What the numbers say

Predicting which Fantasy players are going to perform on a given matchday is a difficult task. Through crunching the numbers, a projected points total for each player has been calculated based on the player's historical performance in the UEFA Champions League. Goals, assists, clean sheets and the likelihood of playing are the main parameters used in our projections.

The top projected players for each position for Matchday 11 are given below. As ever, check the predicted line-ups before making your final selection.

GOALKEEPERS

Having conceded just one goal so far in the knockout stage, Chelsea's Edouard Mendy is the goalkeeper projected to score the most points on Matchday 11 as the English club travel to Madrid. The Senegalese stopper features in over a quarter of Fantasy teams but #UCLfantasy managers would be well advised to monitor the starting line-ups before the deadline as Kepa has been the man between the posts in Chelsea's last two games.

Whoever starts in goal for Chelsea, his opposite number will almost certainly be Thibaut Courtois, who is on a run of three consecutive clean sheets in all competitions with Zinédine Zidane's side looking typically solid at the business end of the season. Less than 10% of #UCLfantasy managers have selected Courtois in their squads too, so the Belgian offers differential value.

The attacking talent on show in the tie between Manchester City and Paris means that the algorithm is not backing clean sheets for either Ederson or Keylor Navas but there is still cause to consider them. Ederson has conceded just three goals in the UEFA Champions League this season while Navas has made 48 saves over the course of the competition – good enough for an additional 14 points.

DEFENDERS

Both César Azpilicueta and Antonio Rüdiger have established themselves as part of Thomas Tuchel's first-choice bac kline and they have served him extremely well since the German took the reins at Chelsea. Azpilicueta has played every minute of UEFA Champions League action since Matchday 4, likewise Rüdiger since Matchday 5, so they are the obvious route into the Blues' defence.

Despite not featuring on Matchday 10, João Cancelo remains the highest scoring #UCLfantasy defender available with 52 points and his inclusion in the projections is predominantly due to his attacking threat. He has already bagged a goal and assist in the competition while 46 ball recoveries is not to be sniffed at for a full-back. Team-mate John Stones also makes an appearance and that is partly due to the strong likelihood of a place in Josep Guardiola’s Matchday 11 starting line-up. The centre-back's chances of starting have increased due to the fact he is currently serving a domestic suspension, while four goals in the Premier League this season show his eye for goal.

Real Madrid have been beset with defensive injuries recently but Nacho has stepped up to the task admirably and could tempt #UCLfantasy managers with his ball recovery statistics. The Spaniard's nine recoveries against Liverpool on Matchday 10 saw him score nine Fantasy points – more than any other defender – and he could be a canny differential for those looking to go against the grain.

MIDFIELDERS

The superb form of Manchester city youngster Phil Foden has not gone unnoticed with the algorithm picking him to provide more Fantasy returns after scoring in both legs of his side’s quarter-final against Dortmund. Fellow City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, with two goals and four assists in the UEFA Champions League this season, would be projected higher if it wasn’t for an injury casting some doubt on his participation on Matchday 11. The same can be said of Luka Modrić, the second highest scoring #UCLfantasy midfielder (51 points), who is carrying a slight back problem but whom is currently expected to be fit for the first leg against Chelsea.

A superb performance on Matchday 10 against Bayern coupled with some eye-catching domestic form means Paris's Ángel Di María makes an appearance in the top five projected midfielders. The Argentinian has a goal and three assists to his name in the UEFA Champions League this season and is selected by just 4% of #UCLfantasy managers at present.

Having scored five or more Fantasy points on five occasions this season, and scored 13 points over the course of both quarter-final legs against Porto, Jorginho is one of the most consistent #UCLfantasy midfielders available. He is Chelsea's designated penalty taker and has amassed an impressive 62 ball recoveries so far, which always keeps his score above a certain threshold.

FORWARDS

The choices have thinned considerably when it comes to striking options, especially when you consider the fact that Manchester City, and lately Chelsea, have shown a tendency to line up without a recognised striker in Europe. For the latter, Timo Werner (three goals and two assists in Europe) would seem the likeliest to feature but including the German in your Fantasy front three would be a gamble given his domestic struggles. Once again, studying Chelsea's starting line-up ahead of the Matchday 11 deadline will be key here.

Undoubtedly the most attractive team to look at for forwards is Paris, with both Kylian Mbappé and Neymar offering plenty of potential given that they have accrued 14 goals and six assists between them so far. Mauro Icardi, meanwhile, has had a UEFA Champions League campaign to forget but his recent burst of form – five goals in his last three appearances in all competitions – may have given Paris coach Maurizio Pochettino something to think about.

Four-time UEFA Champions League winner Karim Benzema can be relied on to start, though. The French striker sits on 27 goals in all competitions this season and is Real Madrid's likeliest source of goals when they play host to Chelsea on Matchday 11.