#UCLfantasy: What the numbers say
Friday, November 2, 2018
Article summary
UEFA.com runs the rule over the facts and figures to find out who might be a worthwhile matchday four investment.
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Predicting which Fantasy players are going to perform on a given matchday is a difficult task. Through crunching the numbers, a projected points total for each player has been calculated based on the player's historical performance in the UEFA Champions League. Goals, assists, clean sheets and the likelihood of playing are the major parameters used in our projections.
The top projected players for each position for matchday four are given below.
GOALKEEPERS
| Player | Price | Club | Opponents | Home/Away | Gameday | Projected |
| Marc-André ter Stegen | 6.0 | Barcelona | Internazionale | A | Tuesday | 6.3 |
| Manuel Neuer | 6.0 | Bayern | AEK Athens | H | Wednesday | 6.2 |
| Neto | 5.0 | Valencia | Young Boys | H | Wednesday | 6.1 |
| Alisson Becker | 5.5 | Liverpool | Crvena zvezda | A | Tuesday | 6.1 |
| Andre Onana | 4.5 | Ajax | Benfica | A | Wednesday | 6.0 |
Multiple clubs and goalkeepers are projected to keep a clean sheet on matchday four. Of the top five, four kept a clean sheet against their opponents in the reverse fixture. Barcelona's Marc-André ter Stegen, Bayern's Manuel Neuer, Liverpool's Alisson Becker and Ajax's Andre Onana offer a range of prices and gamedays for managers to consider, while Neto could prove a worthwhile investment.
DEFENDERS
| Player | Price | Club | Opponents | Home/Away | Gameday | Projected |
| Andy Robertson | 5.5 | Liverpool | Crvena zvezda | A | Tuesday | 8.9 |
| David Alaba | 6.5 | Bayern | AEK Athens | H | Wednesday | 8.2 |
| Jordi Alba | 6.5 | Barcelona | Internazionale | A | Tuesday | 7.9 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 4.5 | Dortmund | Atlético | A | Tuesday | 7.5 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico | 4.5 | Ajax | Benfica | A | Wednesday | 7.5 |
| Mats Hummels | 6.0 | Bayern | AEK Athens | H | Wednesday | 7.0 |
| Alex Telles | 5.5 | Porto | Lokomotiv | H | Tuesday | 6.4 |
| Leonardo Bonucci | 6.0 | Juventus | Man. Utd | H | Wednesday | 6.3 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby | 4.0 | Valencia | Young Boys | H | Wednesday | 6.0 |
| Cristiano Piccini | 4.5 | Valencia | Young Boys | H | Wednesday | 6.0 |
Full-backs lead the way for matchday four's top projected defenders, with the top three spots all belonging to attacking left-backs. At the very top is Andy Robertson, who recorded a clean sheet and an assist against Crvena zvezda on matchday three. A premium option, Bayern's David Alaba registered two clean sheets and an assist in his three home appearances in last season's UEFA Champions League; the Austrian is projected to keep a clean sheet against an AEK side who have failed to score in two of their three matches in the tournament so far.
Barcelona's Jordi Alba – who boasts more Fantasy points than any other defender – unsurprisingly makes the top three having already registered two clean sheets, three assists and one goal in this season's group stage. Valencia provide two budget options; Mouctar Diakhaby and Cristiano Piccini face Young Boys, who have failed to find the net in two of their three UEFA Champions League matches so far.
MIDFIELDERS
| Player | Price | Club | Opponents | Home/Away | Gameday | Projected |
| Mohamed Salah | 11.0 | Liverpool | Crvena zvezda | A | Tuesday | 8.6 |
| Erik Lamela | 7.0 | Tottenham | PSV Eindhoven | H | Tuesday | 6.9 |
| Jesús Corona | 6.5 | Porto | Lokomotiv | H | Tuesday | 6.9 |
| Jadon Sancho | 5.0 | Dortmund | Atlético | A | Tuesday | 6.6 |
| Marco Reus | 6.0 | Dortmund | Atlético | A | Tuesday | 6.6 |
| Pablo Rosario | 5.5 | PSV Eindhoven | Tottenham | A | Tuesday | 6.3 |
| Xherdan Shaqiri | 7.5 | Liverpool | Crvena zvezda | A | Tuesday | 6.0 |
| David Silva | 9.0 | Man. City | Shakhtar | H | Wednesday | 5.9 |
| Bernardo Silva | 8.0 | Man. City | Shakhtar | H | Wednesday | 5.9 |
| Sadio Mané | 9.0 | Liverpool | Crvena zvezda | A | Tuesday | 5.8 |
The projected top midfielders come predominantly from English clubs, who provide six of the top ten. At the top of the table are Liverpool's Mohamed Salah and Tottenham's Erik Lamela. The former is well known to #UCLfantasy players thanks to his ten goals and four assists last season, and is in the middle of a rich vein of form with five goals in his last four matches for club and country. Lamela may not be in quite that form, but has already demonstrated his pedigree in this season's competition with a goal and an assist.
Elsewhere, two Dortmund players are in the top ten. While Marco Reus needs no introduction, Jadon Sancho warrants further inspection. The Englishman has returned one goal and one assist in this season's competition and represents an eye-catching budget option.
FORWARDS
| Player | Price | Club | Opponents | Home/Away | Gameday | Projected |
| Edin Džeko | 10.0 | Roma | CSKA Moskva | A | Wednesday | 8.6 |
Cristiano Ronaldo
A range of premium and mid-price options are projected in the top ten forwards. The top choice is Edin Džeko, who with five goals is top scorer in this season's UEFA Champions League along with Lionel Messi, and got two in the reverse fixture against CSKA. Premium assets Cristiano Ronaldo, Messi (an injury doubt), Harry Kane and Robert Lewandowski make an appearance, with Ronaldo still looking for his first #UCL goal for Juventus.
Of the mid-price options, Moussa Marega has scored in two of his three #UCL matches this season, returning four or more points each matchday. His Porto side host Lokomotiv Moskva, who have conceded in every group match.
