Two games to go: do you have enough points?
Friday, November 20, 2015
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Barcelona and Porto can relax a little but Arsenal and Co this isn't for you: we examine what points tallies after matchday four suggest you will be in the round of 16.
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Barcelona and Porto can relax a little but Arsenal and Co, this isn't for you: we examine what points tallies after matchday four suggest you will be in next month's round of 16 draw.
There are 12 possible scores teams could be on at with two matches to go: everything from zero to 12 inclusive except for 11. Here's how each tally stacks up since the current competition format began in 2003/04 ...
- 12 points: Zenit, already through, make it 16 teams out of 16 to progress having won their first four games; indeed all were already in the knockouts with two matches to spare and none failed to top their group.
- 10: Good news for Barcelona and Porto – even before Real Madrid this season, all 33 teams with three wins and a draw at this point made it to the knockout phase and 28 ended in first place.
- 9: A small warning sign for Benfica, Bayern München and Olympiacos: not including Manchester City this season, 34 out 35 have made it through (19 as group winners), but Napoli in 2013/14 were to miss out on the highest possible tally with which it is possible to finish third, 12 points, in a three-way head-to-head tie-breaker behind Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal.
- 8: Two wins and two draws, like Juventus, mean 24 out of 27 teams have progressed, 15 in first place. The exceptions are CSKA Moskva (2006/07), Juve themselves (2009/10) and Manchester United (2011/12), the only one of the three to even get another point.
- 7: Still very much in positive territory for Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester United, Atlético Madrid and Chelsea, as 32 teams have gone through and 11 been eliminated after starting with two wins, a draw and a defeat. Only seven of them ended in first.
- 6: Things getting tighter now for PSV Eindhoven, Wolfsburg and Valencia but still in credit, as 21 out of 37 have made it through, six as group winners. Half of those six, like Wolfsburg, were outside the top two at this point. On the other hand, Ajax and Dynamo Kyiv in 2003/04, and Shakhtar Donetsk (2007/08), ended in fourth.
- 5: One win, two draws and a defeat would produce this tally and Roma and Dynamo Kyiv will be relieved that 18 with that record have ended up in the next phase, while 17 have gone out. Three have ended top: AC Milan (2005/06), Barcelona (2009/10) and Monaco (2014/15).
- 4: This tally is achieved with a record of one win, one draw and two defeats – like CSKA Moskva, Galatasaray, Bayer Leverkusen and Gent – or have tied all four matches, but the signs are not good. Exactly 50 teams since 2003/04 have had four points at this stage, and only 12 have survived. Two ended top, the same clubs that remain the only to make it through after having one point at the halfway stage: Panathinaikos in 2008/09 (who lost their first two games) and Arsenal in 2003/04.
- 3: Can Shakhtar Donetsk, Malmö, Sevilla, BATE Borisov, Dinamo Zagreb or Arsenal upset the odds? Just one out of 39 teams with three points from four matches have made it through: Stuttgart, with victories in their last two games at Rangers and against Unirea Urziceni, a 3-1 win where they scored their goals in the first 11 minutes to pip the Romanian side by a point. Stuttgart had drawn three of their first four games; no team have progressed after one win and three defeats at this stage, though Wisła Kraków and Maribor have managed it in the UEFA Europa League.
- 2: Astana can still make it, unlike Borussia Mönchengladbach, but only two out of 24 teams have survived defeat two draws and two defeats to progress: Porto as holders in 2004/05 and Manchester City last season.
- 1: Lyon will have to make history as all 24 previous teams with just one point from four games have gone out, and only five have ended up in third.
- 0: Maccabi Tel-Aviv's elimination means that none of the 23 teams without a point at this stage since 2003/04 have gone through and not one of the previous 22 avoided finishing in fourth. Twelve were to end with six defeats but six did at least eventually win a game.