Stats breakdown: Madrid v Schalke, Porto v Basel
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Article summary
UEFA.com statistician Rob Esteva crunches the numbers about tonight's round of 16 ties and finds that the omens are not at all good for FC Schalke 04.
Article top media content
Article body
Precedent may indicate that the team at home in the second leg are strong favourites to progress from the UEFA Champions League round of 16, but if we delve a little deeper, what chances can we give each side based on historical results in the competition?
Real Madrid CF v FC Schalke 04
• Real Madrid have earned a 2-0 away first-leg win on three occasions in the European Cup, including a preliminary round match in 1961/62. Each time they qualified for the next round, so they have a 100% record taking this scoreline into a second leg.
• Schalke have only ever lost one home first leg 2-0 (v Manchester United FC in the 2010/11 UEFA Champions League semi-finals) and were knocked out 6-1 on aggregate.
• In the UEFA Champions League round of 16, no team have ever come back from a 2-0 home defeat to qualify for the quarter-finals. On all three occasions that the home side have lost 2-0 in the first leg, they have been eliminated.
• Since 2004/05, in all rounds of the competition's knockout phase, seven teams have gone down 2-0 at home; none were able to recover their deficit and qualify.
• In all two-legged ties (including qualifying) in the UEFA Champions League dating back to 1992/93, the home side have lost 2-0 in the first leg 63 times. Not one came back to win the tie.
FC Porto v FC Basel 1893
• Porto have drawn 1-1 away in the first leg and failed to advance just once – against FC Bayern München in the 1990/91 European Champion Clubs' Cup quarter-finals, when they crashed 2-0 at home.
• Basel had never hitherto drawn 1-1 at home in the first leg in the UEFA Champions League proper, the sole previous example coming versus FC Internazionale Milano in the 2004/05 third qualifying round (followed by a 4-1 away reverse).
• In the UEFA Champions League round of 16 overall, a first-leg tie has finished 1-1 on 15 occasions. Of those, the team who were away first progressed 11 times (73.3%), with the side at home in the first game winning the other four ties (26.7%).
• In the UEFA Champions League knockout rounds overall, there have been 22 1-1 draws in the first leg. The away team have won 17 ties (77.3%), with the side at home first winning five (22.7%).
• In all two-legged ties (including qualifying) in the UEFA Champions League since 1992/93, there have been 100 1-1 draws in the first match. The away team in the first game went through 68 times (68%) and the home team prevailed on 32 occasions (32%).