What are each team's chances of going through?
Friday, May 5, 2017
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Monaco and Atlético Madrid probably don't need reminding how hard their task of getting through to the final now is, but history is definitely against them.
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Monaco and Atlético Madrid probably don't need reminding how hard their task of getting through to the UEFA Champions League final now is, but history is definitely against them.
We looked at every past first leg in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, UEFA Cup/UEFA Europa League and European/UEFA Cup Winners' Cup with an identical scoreline to the current semi-final ties and noted which teams went though. We also narrowed it down to European Cup and specifically UEFA Champions League semi-finals.
Needless to say, for either Juventus or Real Madrid to be stopped from getting to Cardiff, something unprecedented has to happen.
Tuesday: Juventus v Monaco (2-0)
• Only once in a UEFA Champions League semi-final has a team lost a home first leg and gone through: Ajax in 1995/96, when they recovered from a 1-0 defeat by Panathinaikos to win 3-0 in Greece.
UEFA Champions League semi-finals
Times exact scoreline registered in first leg: 3
Home side in second leg through: 3 (100%)
Away side in second leg through: 0 (0%)
All European Cup semi-finals
Times: 3
Home side in second leg through: 3 (100%)
Away side in second leg through: 0 (0%)
• Two of those three ties were in 2010/11 where Barcelona went through despite being held 1-1 by Real Madrid in the second leg and Manchester United beat Schalke 4-1 in the return.
All UEFA club competition
Times: 339
Home side in second leg through: 330 (97.3%)
Away side in second leg through: 9 (2.7%)
Wednesday: Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid (0-3)
• No team has overturned more than a one-goal deficit after the first leg of a UEFA Champions League semi-final: other than Ajax in 1995/96 the only other comebacks were Juventus v Real Madrid in 2002/03 (1-2 away, 3-1 home), and both ties in 2006/07: AC Milan v Manchester United (2-3 away, 3-0 home) and Liverpool v Chelsea (0-1 away, 1-0 and 4-1 pens home).
UEFA Champions League semi-finals
Times exact scoreline registered in first leg: 1
Home side in second leg through: 0 (0%)
Away side in second leg through: 1 (100%)
• In that one tie Bayern München lost 5-3 on aggregate to Barcelona after a 3-2 second-leg home win in 2014/15.
All European Cup semi-finals
Times: 5
Home side in second leg through: 1 (20%)
Away side in second leg through: 4 (80%)
• In the 1985/86 semi-finals, Barcelona lost 3-0 at IFK Göteborg but won by the same score at the Camp Nou before a 5-4 penalties triumph.
All UEFA club competition
Times: 468
Home side in second leg through: 26 (5.6%)
Away side in second leg through: 442 (94.4%)