What chance has each quarter-finalist got?
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
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History tell us that Real Madrid and Paris each have less than a 20% chance of reaching the semis, but Benfica and Atlético have more reason for optimism despite first-leg deficits.
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Wolfsburg, Bayern München and Barcelona are all ahead going into their UEFA Champions League quarter-final second legs, but what does history tell us are their chances of going through to the last four?
And what of Manchester City, widely recognised as marginal favourites to beat Paris Saint-Germain having drawn 2-2 in the French capital last week?
- In the UEFA Champions League, teams who win 2-0 at home in the first leg go through 84.2% of the time (144/171).
- In UEFA club competitions, teams who win 2-0 at home in the first leg go through 82.4% of the time (566/680).
History favours ... Wolfsburg
Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain (2-2)
- A 2-2 away draw in the first leg of a UEFA Champions League tie has heralded progress 82.1% of the time (64/78).
- In UEFA club competitions, teams who draw 2-2 away from home in the first leg progress 79.4% of the time (220/277).
History favours ... Manchester City
Benfica v Bayern München (0-1)
- A 1-0 first-leg home win in the UEFA Champions League has been good enough to qualify 54.4% of the time (136/250).
- A 1-0 first-leg home win in UEFA club competitions has been good enough to qualify 59.1% of the time (570/965).
History favours ... Bayern
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona (1-2)
- Teams who win 2-1 at home in the first leg of a UEFA Champions League tie have reached the next round 51.2% of the time (84/164).
- Teams who win 2-1 at home in the first leg of all UEFA club competition ties have reached the next round 50.8% of the time.
History favours ... Barcelona (just!)
*All stats include qualifying matches
